French greenhouse gas emissions continued to fall in 2025. According to Citepa’s provisional estimate, they fell by around 1.5% year-on-year, reaching approximately 363 to 364 Mt CO₂e excluding carbon sinks. This is a historically low level, but it does not alter the underlying assessment: the current trajectory remains insufficient to meet the climate targets set for 2030.
A new all-time low – but this should be put into perspective
This figure is unprecedented: France has never recorded such low emissions since 1990. Over the long term, the trend is clearly positive, with a reduction of around 31% between 1990 and 2023, continuing into 2024 and then 2025.
However, this low figure should be interpreted with caution. Indeed, the report published in the summer of 2025 by Citepa, an independent body responsible for monitoring GHG emissions, is a provisional estimate based on the first nine months of the year and a projection for the final quarter.
A downward trend that is slowing significantly
To put the reduction in GHG emissions in France into context, it is particularly important to analyse the rate at which it is falling. Whilst the fall in emissions reached 6.8% in 2023 – partly due to the post-crisis energy situation – the rate of decline has slowed significantly since then. Indeed, it fell to 1.8% in 2024, and then to around 1.5% in 2025.
This slowdown shows that the ‘easy’ gains – linked to forced energy conservation, reduced production or improvements to the electricity mix – have already been largely realised, and that further progress now depends on more far-reaching transformations, namely the electrification of energy use, the renovation of buildings, changes in transport patterns and the decarbonisation of industry.
In a statement released in early 2026, Monique Barbut, Minister for Ecological Transition, Biodiversity and International Climate and Nature Negotiations, commented on the matter: “The decline in emissions was confirmed in 2025: this is an encouraging sign, but it is not enough. We must collectively step up our efforts across all emitting sectors.” The assessment is therefore shared: the trend is positive, but it is slowing down.
Real sector-specific declines, but still fragile
To be more specific, the decline observed in 2025 is driven by a number of identified factors.
Over the first nine months of the year, the reduction in emissions was mainly driven by industry (-2 Mt CO₂e) and transport (-1.4 Mt CO₂e).
The manufacturing sector played a key role, making a significant contribution to the overall decline, particularly in the construction materials sector.
But this trend raises a fundamental question: to what extent does this decline reflect genuine decarbonisation, and to what extent does it reflect a slowdown in economic activity?
In the transport sector, which remains the largest source of emissions, accounting for nearly a third of national emissions, the decline remains modest. This is part of a long-term trend, but without any clear break. The same applies to the residential and commercial sectors, where the improvements seen in recent years are due as much to weather conditions and energy prices as to renovation policies.
Conversely, some sectors are showing a slight upturn, such as the energy sector in 2025 (+0.5%), indicating that the trend is not linear.
A trajectory that is incompatible with the 2030 target
This is where the real challenge lies. The forthcoming National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC 3) raises France’s climate ambition, setting a target of reducing gross emissions by around 50% between 1990 and 2030, compared with the previous target of 40%. In figures, this would mean a reduction from 548 MtCO₂e to between 270 and 280 MtCO₂e. It is worth noting, however, that according to the latest estimates, emissions in 2025 are expected to be around 363–364 MtCO₂e.
Put simply, to reach this level, emissions would now need to be reduced by around 5% a year between now and 2030. However, the current rate of reduction is around 1.5% to 2% a year.
The gap is significant and, even taking into account cyclical fluctuations, France is not currently on a trajectory consistent with its commitments. Citepa suggests that emissions need to be reduced by around 4.6% per year to remain on track for 2030 – a level never achieved on a sustained basis outside of exceptional periods such as the Covid pandemic. The question is no longer whether emissions are falling, but whether they are falling fast enough. And at this stage, the answer is clearly no.
The key role of public policy
In this context, the issue of public policy takes centre stage. The SNBC sets the direction, structures carbon budgets and guides investment. It plays a vital role in planning, particularly with regard to the decarbonisation of industry, the development of electric mobility and energy-efficient refurbishment, but it cannot, on its own, guarantee that the targets will be met.
The ministry’s statement also emphasises the need to take action: “2026 must be a year of action to put France back on track to meet its climate commitments.” The strategy is in place, the tools are in place, but their implementation remains insufficient at this stage.
Conclusion: progress is still too slow to make a significant impact
With emissions of around 364 Mt CO₂e in 2025, France has reached an all-time high, confirming a downward trend that has been underway for several years.
However, the slowdown observed since 2023 changes the picture. Indeed, at this rate, the current trajectory will not enable us to meet the targets set for 2030. The challenge is no longer to initiate the decline, but to accelerate it significantly and sustainably.
